Markets at new highs with indicators diverging, weakness sign ?
In this article, we will make an analysis of global markets. We will study the US stock market but also the European and Japan Markets. Du to the image size, the visibility is compromized but you can download the image just by clicking on it and you will be able to see it in full screen mode.
The chart above is the S&P 500. Market is at record highs and also broke a resistance. But the thing is when we look at the indicators, like the RSI and the Momentum. The momentum indicator is more usefull because it has lo limits unlike the RSI. So divergences are more meaningfull.
Concerning the chart, indicators are showing weakness signs while market is in rally mode. But divergences like this can't guarrentee a market reversal. In fact, the RSI has to croos below the 50 level and the RSI has to cross the 0 level to confirm the divergence.
The Elliot waves are really powerfull because they allow us to define the market's cycle. The chart above is the Euro Stoxx 50. You can see that the market seems to enter into a bearish trend. It doesn't mean that there is a 100% chance that market will fall but it is likely to happen. It also depends on the ECB and many other factors. The momentum indicator seems to be diverging but becarefull : market has not reached his previous high so this divergence is not confirmed. We have to wait for the market to rise abve the previous high (5th wave) and then for a momentum crossing below the 0 level.
Now let's have a look at the asian market and more specifically at the NIKKEI
It is pretty much the same for the NIKKEI as for the Euro Stoxx 50. But there is litlle differences. For exemple, the japan index is at its previous high level and drawing the 5th wave. This rally seems now to have reached a limit and we have 3 indications of a future bearish trend : The end of the 5th wave, the indicators diverging meaning their is more and more sellers (the result of a market where every body is buying and everybody becoming a potential seller.